By Stephen Shea
March 1, 2016
This season, the Milwaukee Bucks have given up twice as many corner 3s as they have made. It’s a feat that only two teams have accomplished in the last three years. (The 2015 Timberwolves were the other team.) It’s a mark that only 30 teams have hit in the last 20 seasons, and 27 (90%) of those had a losing record.
The corner 3 is an efficient shot, and an effective use of the corner 3 provides the type of spacing that typically leads to an efficient offense. A lack of use of the corner 3 on offense and an inability to prevent the corner 3 on defense suggest a lack of awareness among the organization and coaching staff of how the NBA game has evolved.
Every team is unique, and the ideal offensive and defensive systems for any organization need to be tailored to the strength’s of the personnel. No roster construction would excuse the corner 3 ratio demonstrated by the Bucks, but we might relax our criticism if the team were not built for corner 3 usage and prevention. THEY ARE!
The Bucks have emphasized a roster construction with length, quickness and positional versatility, which should be excellent at preventing corner 3s.
Offensively, the team has opted to plant a post-up big, Greg Monroe, in the paint, which limits opportunities for the perimeter players to drive. In addition, the emphasis on length and defensive flexibility has left the roster light on perimeter shooting. In an era where floor spacing is of the utmost importance, the Bucks NEED the corner 3 to keep opponents from helping on Monroe and to maintain what little space is left for cutters and drivers.
Why do we care so much about the corner 3?
Corner 3s have accounted for just 6.6% of the total points scored in the NBA this season, but the importance of the corner is far greater than what that percentage suggests.
The most obvious impact of the corner 3 is the value obtained from the shot itself. The NBA is shooting 37.5% on corner 3s this season. That equates to 1.125 points per attempt. According to NBA.com, that’s almost exactly the points per possession for the Golden State Warriors this season. The other 29 teams are scoring at a lower rate. The corner 3 is more efficient than what teams typically get on offense (including transition).
The corner 3’s value extends beyond what it provides when shot. Effective use of the corner 3 contributes immensely to the spacing in the halfcourt offense. See this previous post where we show that use of the corner 3 correlates with overall offensive efficiency.
See this post for a discussion of how driving and corner 3s are complementary activities, and their combined usage is remarkably predictive of offensive efficiency.
In another article, we use spatial tracking data to show that simply positioning capable shooters in the corners correlates with a more efficient offense.
Finally, see this article, which uses spatial tracking data to show that with each additional 3-point threat on the court, there are less help defenders around the paint, and the offensive efficiency improves. When teams are spacing the floor with 3 to 4 perimeter shooters, they are making use of the corner 3.
Kings of the corner 3
Why have the Spurs been so successful over the last 20 years? Talent has played a large part, but teams do not have the level and duration of success that the Spurs have enjoyed on talent alone. They also have great offensive and defensive systems, and the corner 3 is a big part of both.
To assess a team’s usage and prevention of the corner 3, we’ll use the ratio of the made corner 3s against them to the corner 3s they make. In each season from 2001 to 2014, the Spurs were in the top 3 in this ratio (where top implies lowest ratio.) In 13 of those 14 seasons, they were in the top 2. In 8 of those seasons, they led the league. The following chart presents the top 3 teams for each season since 2001.
The following chart shows that teams that excel in this ratio also win.
The Spurs were ahead of their time in recognizing of the importance of the corner 3. For example, in 2005, the Spurs only gave up 88 corner 3s while making 237. That’s a ratio of 0.37. The next best ratio that season was 0.51.
In recent years, the Spurs haven’t been so dominant in this category. In 2015, the Spurs were 4th in the ratio. This season, they are 6th.
What happened the last two seasons? Simply put, other teams caught on. Everyone is familiar with how Daryl Morey has constructed the Rockets in an analytically savvy fashion, we recently wrote about the brilliance of Portland, and the Warriors…Well, they do just about everything right.
Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy brings the corner 3 wherever he goes. Detroit is 4th in the ratio this season, and check out his influence on Orlando.
For more than a decade, the Spurs were the undisputed kings of the corner 3. Now, they are just one of many teams that realize its value. Given the growth of basketball analytics, it’s not surprising that many teams have caught on to this component of the Spurs’ success. What’s surprising is that there are teams that still haven’t figured it out.
Bucking the trend
In 2014, the Bucks allowed 1.96 corner 3s for every corner 3 they made. That was the lowest mark of any team that season. That abomination coincided with winning just 15 games. It was a low point for a franchise that’s too familiar with failure.
2015 brought new hope. Giannis Antetokounmpo was improving, Khris Middleton was emerging, and although he got hurt, the recent addition of Jabari Parker suggested the Bucks had a young core to build around. The team surprised by winning 41 games and making the playoffs. As part of their improvement, the team improved their corner 3 ratio, giving up 1.22 corner 3s for every corner 3 they made.
2015 should have been the stepping-stone for better things this season. Milwaukee brought back largely the same core (although the transition from Brandon Knight to Michael Carter-Williams that began at the 2015 trade deadline hasn’t worked out well.) In addition, Milwaukee spent big on Greg Monroe. (We questioned the fit of Monroe and MCW around Milwaukee’s core in a recent lineup construction article. So, we won’t focus on that here.)
Instead of moving up, Milwaukee has regressed. The team is 25-35 and in 12th place in the Eastern Conference. Their ratio of opponent corner 3s to own corner 3s has plummeted as well. They are giving up two corner 3s for every one that they make. It’s the worst mark this season.
Among the bottom 10 teams in this ratio, all 10 have a negative net rating. In other words, they are all giving up more points than they score. Among the top 10 teams in the ratio, eight have a positive net rating. Only Houston (which ranks 8th) and Philadelphia (which ranks 10th) have a negative net rating. Philadelphia employs an analytically savvy strategy on the court, but have nowhere near the talent yet to compete. Houston employs a similarly savvy system. They have more talent, but it’s been a tumultuous season that has seen them switch coaches and shop one of their stars, Dwight Howard, at the trade deadline.
Milwaukee’s performance in corner 3s is especially deplorable given their current roster construction. The team has emphasized long and athletic perimeter players that can switch screens and challenge perimeter shots. Player like Giannis, Middleton and MCW should have no problem rotating and taking away opponents’ corner 3s. Instead, Milwaukee has given up the most corner 3s this season.
On offense, many teams “hide” an average or below average offensive player in the corner. Teams need to balance the demands on offense and defense in their lineups. This often means that teams play players that are great defensively, but limited offensively. Players like Al-Farouq Aminu and Corey Brewer find themselves in lineups more for their defense than their offense. Offensively, Brewer and Aminu often find the corners where they can be efficient enough in a catch-and-shoot opportunity to provide value and spacing for their team.
Milwaukee has decided to invest in an offensive center that likes to post up. Greg Monroe provides little offensive value away from the hoop. This often pushes Milwaukee’s forwards to the perimeter. The Bucks do not have great 3-point-shooting forwards in Giannis and Parker. Neither should be launching from above the break. However, there is good reason to believe both could be efficient at corner 3s.
Jabari Parker was 38-106 (36%) from 3 in his one season at Duke. His FT% (75% at Duke and 78% this season) suggests he’s got the proper shooting mechanics and touch. Parker should have little problem knocking down corner 3s. Instead, he’s only taken 5 this season.
Milwaukee does place capable shooters in the corners on offense. Often, Middleton, O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless will end up there. Having capable shooters in the corners is a good thing. However, when you’re best shooters are in the corners, it can leave little room for others to provide space. Consider the following still taken from a recent game against Portland.
Middleton just received a pass at the top of the key from Bayless. Middleton’s defender was caught out of position opening up the possibility for a Middleton drive. In this image, the Bucks have Bayless and Rashad Vaughn in the corners, but their men won’t be forced to help on the Middleton drive. Parker and Monroe (with their defenders) are occupying the two blocks. It’s a spacing catastrophe. Middleton has nowhere to go. He pulls up for a mid-range jumper.
What would we like to see instead? In the next image, Miles Plumlee has come up to set a screen on Middleton’s man. Giannis is at the top of the picture and is racing into the corner. Out of the picture, Bayless is in the near corner.
Giannis gets to the corner. He’s dangerous enough there that his man can’t help on Middleton. Middleton draws Portland’s Mason Plumlee. In the next image, we see Middleton in the air. He would toss the alley-oop to Miles Plumlee, who finishes the play with an easy dunk.
See the video here (the second video in the sequence):
Giannis is not a great shooter, but he’s been respectable from the corner 3. This season, he’s 10 for 28 (36%) from the corners.
The tragedy is that he’s only taken 28 corner 3s.
Giannis and Parker don’t always need to be in the corners. They bring more to the table offensively than that. However, only 33 attempted corner 3s between the two of them this season is not acceptable.
Final thoughts
Milwaukee has the type of roster that could prevent corner 3s on defense and could greatly benefit from the use of corner 3s on offense. The incredibly poor prevention and usage of 3s this season suggests a systematic failure.
As the Bucks finish this season and prepare for the next, the organization should put a priority on playing lineups and implementing systems that are more likely to succeed in the modern NBA.