Rebuilding Brooklyn through defense

By Stephen Shea, Ph.D.

February 20, 2016

Brooklyn Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov recently wrote a letter to the Brooklyn fans. In it, Prokhorov admits, “the problem with the Nets has been a lack of concept.” He resolves, “We must have a strategy about the team’s identity.”

Yes, planning and foresight are important. When Andy Samberg and Justin Timberlake decided they weren’t going to get you a diamond ring or fancy car for Christmas, they made sure to outline three clear steps to gift-giving glory.

But we all occasionally get caught up in the moment and jump at an appealing opportunity only to later regret the rash decision. Just this morning, I took a shower and then decided to go for a run. I was foolish, I know. I was left with the consequence of having to take another shower. It’s not quite the same as getting left with a terrible roster, high payroll and no draft picks. But I’m still ashamed.

Mr. Prokhorov, I’m glad that six years into your tenure as owner of an NBA franchise you’ve realized that you need a strategy in order to compete for an NBA Championship, that you need a plan before you start throwing millions of dollars at players and trading away all of your future draft picks.

Lucky for you, I’ve got just such a plan.

Step 1: It’s a stars’ league. Find the defensive stars.

You won’t win an NBA Championship without star talent. But which players are stars?

No, it’s not 2016-17 Dwyane Wade. He was once a star, and he still has the namesake of a star, but he’s not producing like a star anymore. The Nets need to acquire players for what they will do in the future, not what they’ve done in the past.

And before you start thinking about players that inefficiently fill the box score, I’ve compiled every one of Josh Smith’s 3-point attempts in one video for you to watch while Lance Stevenson blows in your ear.

The best players do everything. They can shoot from the perimeter and attack off the dribble. They want the shot with the game on the line, but know to pass when a teammate has a better opportunity. They work hard on defense and can have the positional versatility to switch screens and guard multiple positions. Think Kawhi Leonard, for example. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of these types of players.

We still consider players with a few deficiencies stars as long as they are absolutely elite in their areas of strength. What’s interesting though, is that we are far more lenient when it comes to defensive liabilities than offensive liabilities. For example, James Harden is considered one of the NBA’s brightest stars because he is elite offensively, and even though he is average defensively.

We don’t typically do the same for players that are elite defensively and average offensively. For example, the 2004 Detroit Pistons are the go-to example of how a team can win without “stars.” THEY HAD STARS! Their players were strong on defense. They had a team defensive rating of 95.4, which is the second lowest mark we’ve seen this century.

We are infatuated with offense, and as a result, teams have to pay a premium for offensive players. Heck, Enes Kanter signed for 70 million.

Brooklyn has limited assets to trade and the team’s recent struggles will be a hard sell to free agents. There will be far more competition for and dollars thrown at offensive stars. Given the circumstances, Brooklyn should try to build through defense first.

Step 2: Hire a defensive coach

It’s absolutely essential that the coach be on board with the organization’s strategy. If the Nets are going to build a contender through defense, they should hire a coach that supports and can optimize that strategy.

Interestingly, one of the best defensive minds in the world is available. Tom Thibodeau is sometimes seen as being too tough on his players, and has been chastised for overusing his starters, but if Brooklyn wants a culture change, Thibodeau is the best option.

There are other defensive-minded coaches available, but none are as accomplished as Thibodeau.

Step 3: Hold onto RHJ

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the future asset for this team, and given the draft pick situation, he might be the only one for the next few years.

RHJ’s biggest weakness is his perimeter shot. For organizations that are trying to build a winner through offense, having a wing that can’t shoot could be a major detriment. In the halfcourt, his defender will drop to help in the lane on drives and cuts.

However, for a team that wants to win with defense, RHJ is a perfect fit. He has the potential to be a lockdown perimeter defender, the type of guy that you can match up on Durant or whatever star comes to town.

Step 4: A defensive big

Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Nikola Vucevic, …. Teams keep throwing massive contracts at offensive bigs. And, what has this gotten them? In some cases, the teams get worse.

In the modern NBA, you want to keep the lane as open as possible. This means that you want perimeter players to shoot well enough to keep their defenders honest. It also means that you don’t want to regularly post up a big like Kanter. Placing Kanter in the lane allows defenders like DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert to camp under the hoop. This grossly diminishes a team’s ability to find offense on drives and cuts.

You want a big that will set screens on the perimeter and then be able to catch lobs on the roll. Anything beyond that offensively is a bonus.

The real priority of a center is defense. This is especially true if you’re building a team that wants to win with defense. The center’s role on defense in the modern game is difficult. They need to have the size to protect the rim, but they also need to be agile enough to hedge (or even switch) on screens on the perimeter.   Almost no player is great at both.

My suggestion is to have the versatility to play big or small defensively. For sleeper candidates as a “big” center, consider Festus Ezeli. He’s a restricted free agent for Golden State. If Golden State wants to make a serious run at big free agents like Durant, they might not be willing to put much money into Ezeli.

There are also the unrestricted free agent options of Timofey Mozgov and Ian Mahinmi.

Digging deeper, consider Dewayne Dedmon of Orlando. He’s currently their third-string center and not likely a part of their long term plans.

Of course, if Thibodeau were the coach of choice, you’d have to consider a reunion with Joakim Noah.

Playing small is a bit more difficult. Golden State has done it well thanks to the versatility of Draymond Green.

Jared Sullinger could be available this summer. He doesn’t have the ideal lateral quickness to switch screens, but his wide frame allows him to body up opposing bigs on defense and his moderate shooting can open up the paint on offense.

Step 5: Still need shooting

You’re trying to build a team through defense, but you can’t forget about offense entirely. It’s likely that the team will feature lineups with RHJ on the wing and a defensive big in the middle. That means 2/5 of the offense won’t be a threat from the perimeter.

Modern defenses will devour an offense that can’t space the floor. They’ll leave the non-shooters alone on the perimeter and triple-team any player trying to score in the paint. Thus, the team needs to surround RHJ and the big with players that can shoot.

And when I say shoot, I mean all the way to the three-point line. Jarrett Jack, Thomas Robinson, Thaddeus Young, and Andrea Bargnani won’t cut it.

I’m not suggesting signing Steve Novak. Defense is still a priority, but try to find guys that 3 and D. In other words, you want Mike Conley, not Rajon Rondo.

Step 6: Bolster offensive efficiency through transition

An often-underrated way to improve offensive efficiency is to increase the percentage of offense generated through transition. A good defensive team should be able to do exactly that.

The following table displays the halfcourt and transition efficiencies for each team this season. It also displays the percentage of offense each team generates through the two activities. (The transition numbers are courtesy of NBA.com. Halfcourt numbers are my best approximation based on those transition numbers and standard statistics at NBA.com.)

Halfcourt and Transition Efficiency (as of February 20)

Most teams are more efficient in transition than in the halfcourt.

We’re assuming that Kevin Durant or some other offensive wizard is not walking through the doors this summer. As a result, the Nets will not be built to dominate the halfcourt. Instead, Brooklyn should use excellent defense to transition into high quality scoring opportunities. Take steals and rebounds the other way quick, feeding RHJ as he slashes down the lane, or if the defense is racing to protect the paint, hit a trailing 3-and-D wing for an open catch-and-shoot 3-pointer.

I’m going to assume that these defensively focused Nets won’t be any better than this season’s Nets in the halfcourt. However, I am going to suggest that the team strive to generate 25% of its offense in transition and to do so at a near league-leading efficiency of 1.15 points per possession. The result would be an overall offensive efficiency of 1.03 PPP. That’s not elite, but it’s workable if the defense is excellent.

Step 7: Move on from familiar names

Brook Lopez is a talented player. In fact, he’s a solid interior defender that would fit well with this defensive philosophy. Within 6 ft. of the hoop, opponents are shooing 50.8% against him. That’s 9.2 percentage points below what the same individuals usually shoot from that area.

The problem is that Lopez will be paid over 21 million next year, and at that salary, he’s being paid as a go-to offensive weapon. Remember that this will not be a team that is designed to slug things out in the halfcourt. The center’s job will be to defend, grab rebounds, and then outlet. Would Lopez be ok with many possessions ending before he got to halfcourt?

By no means am I suggesting that Brooklyn should give Lopez away. Even worse, it makes no sense to push Lopez out only to overpay a center like Noah on free agency.

Instead, I believe that Lopez still has value on the trade market. I believe Lopez can be moved to rebuild Brooklyn’s draft pick assets and for 3-and-D wings that will fit this organizational strategy. Then, since the center will not be the focus of the offense, Brooklyn can replace Lopez with a defensive center at a much lower cost.

Thad Young is a terrible fit next to RHJ. Imagine the ball in a point guard’s hands. Of the four players off the ball, RHJ, Thad Young and the team’s center are almost no threat from the perimeter. That’s three defenders that can camp out near the lane. It’s a spacing nightmare.

With the cap rising, Young’s contract of 12-13 million is reasonable. He also should have some value on the trade market. It’s time to move him and find a better fit.

Conclusions

Brooklyn is in a tough spot. They are significantly behind other Eastern Conference rebuilding teams in just about every category. Boston, Orlando and Milwaukee all have a better current roster, better and more draft picks, and a better group of young players with potential.

This means Brooklyn will have to be particularly savvy if they hope to contend in the next five years. In spite of all the challenges in front of the organization, there is a clear path to building what could be a top 3 NBA defense by next season. The team already has a promising young defender in RHJ. There are elite defensive coaches without jobs. There are defensive players coming up on free agency or otherwise available through trades. And, since defense is consistently under-valued by most NBA organizations, there won’t be much competition on this path to success.