First Look at 2016 College Prospect Ratings

By Stephen Shea, Ph.D.

February 15, 2016

College Prospect Rating (CPR) is a score assigned to college basketball players that approximates their NBA potential. It is generated with a formula that uses full game-log data (as opposed to just season averages) for the prospects. The complete methodology can be found in Basketball Analytics: Spatial Tracking.

Before moving on, it’s important to note CPR’s weaknesses. CPR uses on-the-court production. It cannot account for a player’s character or injury concerns beyond any influence these factors have on the player’s performance in games.

Generally, CPR scores range from 0-10. About 1 player per draft class will eclipse 10 in rating. D’Angelo Russell did it last year (CPR=10.4). Jabari Parker did it the year before (CPR= 10.5). (In a weak 2013 class, the highest score was 7.6.)

Grades between 7.5 and 10 suggest the player should be in consideration early in the lottery. Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Jahlil Okafor and Karl Towns fell in this range over the last two seasons.

CPR doesn’t always agree with NBA front offices. In 2010, the Warriors selected Ekpe Udoh (CPR=4.8) 6^th overall. CPR strongly suggested the pick was Paul George (CPR=8.9). Actually, CPR suggested George should have gone earlier than 6^th. Instead, he slid to 10^th.

CPR had Kyle Korver as a mid first rounder in 2003 (CPR=5.2). Instead, he went 51^st. In 2006, CPR had Adam Morrison as a mid or late first rounder (CPR=3.6). Instead, Morrison went 3^rd overall.

So, where does CPR rate the 2016 prospects? Since the season is incomplete, CPR scores could still change. However, one prospect is steamrolling towards a remarkable mark.

The best CPR score on record belongs to Kevin Durant. He scored an absolutely absurd 38.7. The second-best score belongs to Anthony Davis. He scored a 24.1. No one in the 2016 class is likely to compete with those two.

Beyond Durant and AD, no player has surpassed 15. Carmelo Anthony came the closest (CPR=14.9). Hassan Whiteside actually had a CPR=14.6. (Yes, this model was screaming for teams to invest in him last year before Miami “found” him on an incredible bargain.)

As of right now, Ben Simmons has a CPR of 15.6. Unless Simmons falls apart down the stretch, it will be the highest score we’ve seen since AD.

This could be the player Philadelphia has tanked for. This could be the player that restores the Lakers, that carries the Kobe torch.

The following table contains the CPR scores of 25 of the top prospects from the 2016 class. CPR agrees with many scouts in rating Brandon Ingram and Henry Ellenson 2^nd and 3^rd among college prospects. Jamal Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Buddy Hield and Kris Dunn all rate as lottery picks (where they’ll likely go).

If there is a player where CPR disagrees with popular opinion, it’s Jaylen Brown. Some project Jaylen Brown as a top 6 pick. CPR does not agree.

Overall, the class looks solid. But only one name truly stands out. This is the year of Ben Simmons.