By Stephen Shea (@SteveShea33)
January 2, 2016
Recently, Marc Stein reported that Chicago’s coach, Fred Hoiberg, is on the hot seat. He also suggested that Chicago’s VP of Basketball Operations, John Paxson, and General Manager, Gar Forman, are at risk of losing their jobs.
From Marc Stein of ESPN on December 30, 2016
“The latest chatter on the coaching grapevine, meanwhile, tells us that the toastiest seat on the NBA map at present belongs, rightly or wrongly, to the Chicago Bulls’ Fred Hoiberg.…
Just to be clear: Hoiberg isn’t exactly alone in the crosshairs in Chicago. Thanks to a succession of underwhelming first-round draft picks and a roster construction that has been questioned from the moment it materialized over the summer, fan frustration with the front-office tag team of John Paxson and Gar Forman has never been more tangible, rising steadily since Rajon Rondo and then Dwyane Wade were signed as the marquee additions to a roster already light on proven perimeter threats to space the floor.”
Whether the reports are true or not, the criticisms are warranted. The Bulls have a lineup construction problem, and the blame for that falls on all of the above.
Let’s Play Build that Lineup
To best understand Hoiberg’s options and any possible limitations imposed by the Bulls’ roster construction, let’s try to build the optimal Bulls lineup with the current team.
1st Ingredient: Jimmy Butler
Ok, this is an easy one. Jimmy Butler is Chicago’s two-way star. The best lineup should include Butler.
2nd Ingredient: Some floor spacing
We’ve looked into lineup construction on this blog. Our research suggests that good lineups need 3 capable 3-point threats and 1 solid interior defender/rebounder (but we will get to the latter later.)
Butler isn’t a great 3-point shooter, but he’s capable enough. Beyond Jimmy, the Bulls have 3 at least somewhat proven rotation players that can be considered deep threats: Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Isaiah Canaan. (Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis might get there someday.) If we want to keep the defense honest and the lane thin on help defense, we’ll need to include 2 of these 3 floor spacers.
3rd Ingredient: A big that can defend
We don’t need an elite offensive big (although it would be nice). The priority in a center is defense and rebounding. Robin Lopez does that just fine. In an NBA that’s trending small, Taj Gibson is passable (especially when the opponent goes small). So, we’ll require our lineup have either Gibson or Lopez.
4th Ingredient: Wildcard
Our analysis suggested that lineups should have 3 perimeter threats and 1 rim protector. That allows for a wildcard. It allows for a Russell Westbrook, Blake Griffin or Dwyane Wade. There’s more to the game than interior defense and perimeter shooting. Sometimes it makes sense to sacrifice the two for a player that is great in other areas. Rondo and Wade are great in other areas. We’ll require our lineup fill the last spot with Wade, Rondo or the other floor spacer (either Mirotic, McDermott or Canaan) that wasn’t included above.
Has Chicago used it?
Chicago’s roster isn’t loaded with players ideal for the modern game. It’s slim on 3-point shooting and has 2 expectant starters in Wade and Rondo that don’t fit in our intelligent lineup construction. For that, we blame the front office. However, it does have enough options that our construction could see the floor for at least 25 minutes a night. Has Hoiberg used our construction?
Barely. Lineups meeting our design have been used just 169 minutes this season.
Does it work?
It wouldn’t make sense to criticize Hoiberg for using a lineup that doesn’t work. So, has our lineup construction been successful?
[Dramatic pause]
[Drumroll]
[Dramatic pause]
YES! This lineup construction is +78 in those 169 minutes, or put another way, this lineup outscores opponents by 22.2 points per 48 minutes.
[Applause]