By Stephen Shea, Ph.D. (@SteveShea33)
College Prospect Ratings (CPR) are an objective measure of an NCAA prospect’s NBA potential. They are generated from a player’s projected position, his years experience in college and the box score production captured in his game logs.
Below, I will present the updated ratings (as of March 29th), which for many players (including Ben Simmons) are their final CPR ratings.
Flashback to 2009
As Steph Curry is destroying the NBA, teams that passed on him in 2009 have to be wondering if they missed something pre-draft that would have provided some insight that Steph would develop into such an exceptional player. In particular, the Wolves, who drafted 2 point guards 5th and 6th overall and right before Curry went to the Warriors, have to wonder if their draft strategy was flawed.
No one saw Steph Curry becoming the all-time elite player that he is today, but there were reasons to suspect that he would be great. A draft model like CPR would have been one of them.
Here are the top 7 picks from the 2009 draft with their CPR scores (excluding Rubio).
| Pick | Player | CPR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Griffin | 10.1 |
| 2 | Hasheem Thabeet | 6.4 |
| 3 | James Harden | 5.5 |
| 4 | Tyreke Evans | 7.2 |
| 5 | Ricky Rubio | - |
| 6 | Johnny Flynn | 4.3 |
| 7 | Steph Curry | 10.6 |
On average, about 1 player per draft will rate above 10 in CPR. Without a doubt, a rating above 10 suggests a top 3 pick. In 2009, both Blake Griffin and Curry rated above 10 with Curry slightly edging out Griffin for the high score. The general rule of thumb is that integer differences matter in CPR, while decimal differences aren’t that significant. Griffin and Curry were rated close enough that the model wouldn’t object to the selection of Griffin over Curry.
In contrast, CPR strongly favors Curry over the other NCAA players drafted above him (especially Johnny Flynn), and in retrospect, the model was right.
It’s also important to note that players can score well in CPR and not develop into solid NBA players, and players can score low and surprise. Hasheem Thabeet’s rating of 6.4 suggest that he should be a mid to late lottery selection and that he could develop into not a star, but a functional center. To date, he hasn’t done it. In contrast, Harden’s rating of 5.5 suggests he’s a late lottery selection, but he’s developed into the type of player that justifies his top 3 selection.
2016 Draft
Below are the updated CPR Rating for 35 of the top NCAA prospects.
| Player | CPR |
|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram | 9.0 |
| Ben Simmons | 8.8 |
| Henry Ellenson | 8.4 |
| Jamal Murray | 8.2 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 7.5 |
| Dejounte Murray | 6.4 |
| Buddy Hield | 6.1 |
| Denzel Valentine | 5.6 |
| Grayson Allen | 5.6 |
| Marquese Chriss | 4.7 |
| Tyler Ulis | 4.5 |
| Diamond Stone | 4.4 |
| Malik Beasley | 4.2 |
| Kris Dunn | 4.2 |
| Melo Trimble | 3.7 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 3.6 |
| Taurean Prince | 3.3 |
| Jaylen Brown | 3.0 |
| Stephen Zimmerman | 2.9 |
| Brice Johnson | 2.8 |
| A.J. Hammons | 2.7 |
| Wade Baldwin | 2.7 |
| Thomas Bryant | 2.5 |
| DeAndre Bembry | 2.5 |
| Ivan Rabb | 2.4 |
| Demetrius Jackson | 2.4 |
| Nigel Hayes | 2.1 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 2.0 |
| Malik Newman | 1.7 |
| Caris LeVert | 1.2 |
| Deyonta Davis | 1.1 |
| Damian Jones | 1.1 |
| Wayne Selden | 1.0 |
| Skal Labissiere | 0.9 |
| Cheick Diallo | 0.3 |
Ben Simmons dropped significantly from his midseason CPR of about 15.6. There are reasons for the drop that aren’t due to him performing poorly necessarily.
First, LSU concluded its season after their last conference tournament game on March 12. This meant that Simmons had less opportunity to demonstrate his pro potential and to improve his CPR score. Had LSU made the NCAA tournament, it’s likely Simmons’ CPR score would be higher.
The second reason for the drop in CPR score is a technical reason and suggests that he was overrated in the midseason report. CPR uses a player’s 3P% in its formula. At season’s end, there are a minimum number of 3-point attempts needed for this 3P% to factor positively into the formula. (We don’t want a player that went 1 for 2 on 3s to profile as an excellent 3-point threat.) Early in the season, I usually don’t require any minimum number of 3-point attempts since CPR is dealing with small sample sizes everywhere. Later in the season, I usually require some prorated minimum, but I neglected to do this with Simmons in the above-reference ratings.
On the season, Simmons was 1 for 3 (33.3%) on 3-pointers. Obviously, that’s not a large enough sample, and so CPR considers Simmons to not have demonstrated college 3-point shooting ability. This is a significant blow to Simmons’ rating.
CPR looks for excellence in statistical production, whether it’s steals, blocks, rebounds, 3P% or elsewhere. The final output’s growth is exponential with regards to the accumulation of “excellence.” So, a player that has not profiled as excellent in anything would only get a small bump in CPR if he were a good 3-point shooter. In contrast, a player that has demonstrated excellence in 6 stats already would get a huge boost for adding 3-point shooting. Ben Simmons has demonstrated excellence in a number of categories. That’s why he has a CPR of 8.8, which is usually good enough to be in the top 3 in the draft class. If he had also demonstrated solid (but not exceptional) 3-point shooting, he would be about a 12 in CPR. In other words, CPR suggests that a Ben Simmons that could shoot 3s would be a better prospect than Blake Griffin was.
Ingram is now the top-rated 2016 prospect. Jamal Murray, Hield and Poeltl saw significant improvements in their CPR scores since midseason. CPR likes Dejounte Murray as a late first round sleeper. There is nothing in the box score production to suggest Skal Labissiere or Cheick Diallo is going to be a great pro. Finally, CPR suggests Jaylen Brown is overrated by scouts that have him in the top 7.