By Steve Shea (@SteveShea33)
December 10, 2018
“Take more threes!” It’s this message that analytics is best known for. It’s this suggestion that has had the most obvious impact on how the game is played.
Analytics was correct, and the game listened. In the early ‘90s, teams averaged less than ten 3-point attempts per game. This season, James Harden is averaging over 11. Teams are averaging over 31, which is 35% of their field goal attempts. And with the increased 3-point volume, teams are more efficient, averaging 109.7 points per 100 possessions, which is the highest on record. The last three seasons have been the three most efficient.
Teams now know. 3-point shooting is a priority in roster construction, offenses are designed to set up 3-point attempts, and defenses are doing their best to take away those options.
The message needs to evolve. There was a time when a team could attempt more threes, in just about any way, and it would have been progress. Those margins have closed. Today, it’s important and challenging to determine how to generate more 3-point attempts. How are teams going to get the best 3-point looks for their best players? How can 3-point threats best be utilized to create space for drives, cuts and rolls?
There are many in analytics that have worked on the how, but it’s clear that this message is not always reaching coaches and players. Listen to Draymond Green’s response when Michael Wilbon asked him if he pays attention to analytics. “I’m supposed to step back behind the line in real time to avoid taking a ‘bad two’?” Draymond understands the value of a three, but his response reveals how worthless it can be to suggest he take more threes without explaining how.
To answer Draymond’s question, no, he shouldn’t step back to avoid the mid-range shot. Well, maybe sometimes, but not in the way he’s suggesting.
Consider the following sequence. Marc Gasol is setting a screen off the ball for Mike Conley. Conley comes off the screen and receives the ball at the foul line. Gasol’s man, Myles Turner, drops into the paint to help on Conley. Gasol, who set the screen in mid-range, steps back to the three-point line to receive the pass and attempt a wide-open three.
The Gasol sequence demonstrates how easily teams can generate open jumpers, even at a time when defenses have a heightened awareness of the efficiency of deep shots. This season, teams are averaging 19 wide-open (when no defender is within 6 feet) jumpers a game. In a modern version of the NBA where teams realize that 3-point attempts are much more efficient than the typical mid-range jumpers, it should come as no surprise that 83% of those open jumpers are 3-point attempts.
In the following plot, we see that a team’s 3P% on wide-open looks very accurately predicts their overall points per shot on those attempts. Or, at least this is the case for all but a few teams. In the chart, we see two teams that have a very high 3-point percentage but their overall points per wide-open shot is not nearly as high as other teams with similar efficiency from behind the arc.
The Spurs and Pacers are the top two teams in terms of percentage of open jumpers from in front of the 3-point line at 33% and 32%, respectively. (The league average is 18%.) And this practice is depressing their overall efficiency when wide-open.
It’s often easiest for big men to get open jumpers. They tend to be less feared from the perimeter, and their defenders are relied upon to help on drives and protect the rim. For the Pacers, that big man is Myles Turner, and the team’s anomalous position on the above chart is a reflection of his tendency to shoot from just inside the arc as opposed to just behind it.
In the following sequence, Turner sets a screen for the ball-handler. As Turner’s man, Karl-Anthony Towns, drops to help on the drive, Turner pops for an open jumper. Although Turner initially set the screen behind the 3-point line, he steps forward to receive the pass and attempt a deep mid-range jumper.
The pick and pop is not the only way big men get open jumpers. Great offenses have great players that change the shapes of defenses. They draw help defense and force rotations that leave the defense vulnerable.
In the following sequence, Brook Lopez waits in the weak-side corner as Giannis drives to the hoop and draws Lopez’s defender, Myles Turner, to help. Giannis kicks to Lopez for the wide-open corner 3.
For Turner, Victor Oladipo is that teammate that will draw help defenders on drives. In the following sequence, as Oladipo drives, Turner’s defender, LaMarcus Aldridge, helps, which leaves Turner open in the corner. However, in contrast to Lopez, when Turner receives the kickout from Oladipo, he steps forward to take a long 2.
Spacing to the 3-point line gives the shooter more time. In the following sequence, Marc Gasol pops to the 3-point line, and if he had stayed in mid-range, it’s likely his defender, Rudy Gobert, would have been able to recover and prevent Gasol’s shot.
Arguably, three-point threats provide the most value through spacing for their teammates. In the following sequence, Lopez comes to the top of the key to set a screen for Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe uses the screen and draws Turner to help. But Turner is so concerned about Lopez’s shot that he leaves Bledsoe, which gives Bledsoe a clear path to the hoop. Lopez creates the opportunity without ever touching the ball.
A mid-range jumper from Lopez is a bad shot by today’s NBA standards. If Lopez were setting up in mid-range, intelligent defenses would always leave him to help on drives and cuts. Lopez’s spacing is a big reason Giannis is getting 11 shots at the hoop per game and shooting 77% when he gets there. He’s getting more chances at the rim and shooting significantly better than he had at any point in his career prior to the addition of Lopez (and Head Coach Mike Budenholzer’s modern offensive system).
Around the NBA, big men are finding open looks from behind the arc. Nikola Vucevic, who took a total of 26 3-point attempts in his first 5 seasons, had 206 last season. Marc Gasol went from three 3-point attempts in 2015-16 to 268 the following season, and 320 the year after that. Brook Lopez took a total of seven 3-point attempts in his first 6 seasons. He’s averaging seven per game this season for the Bucks.
Vucevic, Gasol and Lopez weren’t asked to take 3-pointers early in their careers, but there were plenty of reasons to believe they could be successful if asked to do so. They were good from the free-throw line and comfortable from mid-range. Turner has those same indicators. He has a career 78% free-throw percentage, and he’s shooting 44% on 3.5 mid-range jumpers per game. In addition, Turner was 56/157 (36%) from three last season.
For Turner to transition into the type of 3-point volume we’re seeing from other big men, he would have to become comfortable with new movements, footwork and shots. That would require an investment on the part of Turner and his team. Is it worth it?
Currently, the Pacers are shooting 40% on wide-open 3s and 38% on wide-open 2-point jumpers. 32% of their wide-open jumpers are 2-point attempts. If they could keep their current efficiencies while reducing that 32% to 5% (which would match the Houston Rockets), they’d project to score another 188 points on the season. An additional 188 points projects to an additional 6 wins.
It might be optimistic to think that Indiana could so drastically reduce their attempts from mid-range. It might also be optimistic to think they could maintain shooting 40% from three on wide-open looks if they ask Turner to take a couple more per game. But if they could still shoot around 39% on those 3s as a team and if they could reduce the percentage that come from 2 to near 10%, they’d still project to add another 3 wins. And that projection isn’t taking into account the likely increased efficiency around the hoop for Indiana’s other players when Turner’s man can’t help on drives.
Players and coaches have listened to the suggestion to take more threes, but it’s becoming more difficult to find ways to generate high-quality 3-point attempts. Here, we’ve suggested a relatively simple adjustment that would have a significant impact. For Turner, it’s a difference of 3 feet on his shots. For the Pacers, it would be at least 3 wins.