Stephen Shea, Ph.D.
November 21, 2017
There are 5 major shooting zones on an NBA court: the restricted area (at the hoop), the paint (but not in the restricted area), mid-range, corners, and above the break. Among the zones, the paint and mid-range shots are, by far, the least efficient.
One team has leveraged this information to design a strategy that attempts to greatly reduce paint and mid-range shots. This season, just 7.6% of Houston’s field goal attempts have come from the paint and just 5.8% have come from mid-range. Both percentages are league lows.
Houston’s shot selection is far from the norm. While mid-range attempts are on the decline, many teams are still taking 20% or more of their shots from this inefficient region. What if they didn’t?
As a thought exercise, let’s suppose every team had Houston’s shot selection. We’ll keep each team’s field goal percentages from each zone the same. For example, Sacramento has shot 36.6% from mid-range this season and taken 28.1% of their shots from that region. We’ll assume Sacramento maintains their 36.6% but that they only take 7.6% of their FGA from mid-range (Houston’s percentage).
We’ll measure the team’s shooting efficiency by points per shot (PPS). The table below contains each team’s current PPS, their hypothetical PPS with Houston’s shot selection (labeled NewPPS), the difference between the hypothetical and actual PPS, and the additional points per game the team would score with Houston’s shot selection.
| TEAM | PPS | NewPPS | Diff | Additional Pts/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 0.95 | 1.09 | 0.15 | 12.6 |
| Orlando Magic | 1.06 | 1.17 | 0.11 | 9.0 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 1.02 | 1.13 | 0.10 | 8.6 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 1.04 | 1.13 | 0.10 | 8.2 |
| Indiana Pacers | 1.08 | 1.17 | 0.09 | 8.2 |
| Utah Jazz | 1.00 | 1.09 | 0.09 | 7.6 |
| Denver Nuggets | 1.07 | 1.15 | 0.09 | 7.7 |
| Washington Wizards | 1.04 | 1.13 | 0.09 | 7.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 1.04 | 1.12 | 0.09 | 7.6 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 0.99 | 1.08 | 0.09 | 7.3 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 1.01 | 1.10 | 0.08 | 7.2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 1.06 | 1.14 | 0.08 | 7.1 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.01 | 1.09 | 0.08 | 6.8 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 0.99 | 1.07 | 0.08 | 6.9 |
| Chicago Bulls | 0.95 | 1.03 | 0.08 | 7.0 |
| New York Knicks | 1.04 | 1.12 | 0.08 | 6.7 |
| Miami Heat | 1.03 | 1.09 | 0.07 | 5.8 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.08 | 1.15 | 0.07 | 5.6 |
| Golden State Warriors | 1.18 | 1.24 | 0.07 | 5.6 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 1.00 | 1.06 | 0.06 | 5.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 1.07 | 1.12 | 0.06 | 4.7 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 1.02 | 1.08 | 0.06 | 4.9 |
| Boston Celtics | 0.99 | 1.04 | 0.05 | 4.0 |
| LA Clippers | 1.01 | 1.05 | 0.05 | 4.0 |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.04 | 3.6 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1.08 | 1.12 | 0.03 | 2.8 |
| Toronto Raptors | 1.10 | 1.12 | 0.02 | 1.6 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.02 | 1.3 |
| Houston Rockets | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
Shot selection can impact shooting efficiency, and so, it wouldn’t be fair to suggest that a team could radically alter their shot selection tomorrow and maintain their shooting efficiencies from each zone. Still, when we see that a team like Sacramento would produce 12.6 more points per game with their current field goal percentages and Houston’s shot selection, we have to ask, why aren’t they trying?